PARLIAMENT QUESTION: STRENGTHENING LONG RANGE FORECASTING CAPABILITIES

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has upgraded its Long Range Forecast (LRF) system by adopting a Multi‑Model Ensemble (MME) approach that combines multiple coupled dynamical climate models, reducing the average absolute error of seasonal monsoon forecasts from 7.8% (2016‑2020) to 2.2% of the Long Period Average (2021‑2025). The MME system improves representation of ENSO and IOD, enhancing forecast reliability. IMD follows a two‑stage forecasting strategy—first‑stage in April and second‑stage in May—followed by monthly updates, to progressively refine monsoon predictions. Additional measures include high‑performance computing, AI/ML tools, expanded observation networks, satellite data assimilation, and impact‑based early warning systems for extreme weather events.