PARLIAMENT QUESTION: FLOOD FORECASTING AND EARLY WARNING SYSTEM IN NORTHEAST INDIA

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) issued district‑level rainfall forecasts and colour‑coded impact warnings for all districts of Upper Assam before and during heavy to very heavy rains from 18‑20 July 2026, with a 7‑day lead time. The forecasts followed standard IMD rainfall classifications and were supported by daily weather bulletins archived at the Regional Meteorological Centre, Guwahati. IMD’s performance metrics for extreme rainfall forecasts in Assam’s sub‑regions (West, South, Central, Northeast) show percentages of correct forecasts ranging from ~51 % to ~85 % and varying probabilities of detection, false‑alarm ratios and critical success indices across Day 1‑Day 5 lead times. Seasonal outlooks consider ENSO and IOD, while flood‑risk assessment integrates IMD forecasts with Central Water Commission hydrological models. High‑resolution BharatFS (6 km) and the Multi‑Hazard Early Warning‑Decision Support System under Mission Mausam have been operationalised to improve sub‑district forecasting in Northeast India.