PARLIAMENT QUESTION: SOUTH-WEST MONSOON FORECAST

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) issued its First Stage Long‑Range Forecast for the 2026 Southwest Monsoon on 13 April 2026, projecting rainfall at 92 % of the Long Period Average (LPA). The Second Stage forecast revised this to 90 % of LPA and anticipated El Niño development. By 2 August 2026, cumulative seasonal rainfall was 12 % below LPA, matching the forecast despite intra‑seasonal variations. June recorded 35 % below‑normal rainfall (70 % districts deficit); July was 1 % above LPA overall but 47 % of districts still faced deficient rainfall. Weak to moderate El Niño over the equatorial Pacific was identified as a major climate driver suppressing monsoon circulation, leading to dry spells, meteorological drought, lower soil moisture and stress on rain‑fed crops. IMD continues to issue sub‑divisional alerts to aid disaster preparedness and agricultural planning.