Earth Sciences Minister Dr Jitendra Singh explains El Nino and its Monsoon impact in Lok Sabha reply

The Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services (INCOIS) has used its indigenous AI/ML‑based ENSO prediction system, together with the Global Ocean Data Assimilation System, to assess that the El Niño that began in May 2026 is likely to persist from June 2026 to February 2027 with a 70‑90 % probability. While El Niño historically correlates with weaker Indian Summer Monsoon rainfall, the Ministry notes that monsoon outcomes also depend on the Indian Ocean Dipole, Madden‑Julian Oscillation and other regional ocean‑atmosphere interactions. The government has enhanced ocean state forecasting and multi‑hazard early‑warning services via high‑resolution models and an expanded observation network (gliders, buoys, Argo floats, tide gauges, satellites). It has allocated ₹145.06 crore under the Deep Ocean Mission for marine resource mapping and deployed autonomous vehicles for seafloor exploration. These measures aim to improve climate and ocean predictions, issue timely advisories, and bolster coastal resilience.