PARLIAMENT QUESTION: Preparedness for EI Nino Conditions

The Ministry of Earth Sciences’ India Meteorological Department (IMD) assessed the 2026 El Niño impact on the Southwest Monsoon, issuing a below‑normal rainfall forecast of 92% of the Long Period Average (LPA) in its First Stage Long‑Range Forecast (13 April 2026) and revising it to 90% LPA in the Second Stage forecast, with model errors of ±5% and ±4% respectively. Historically, El Niño events have weakened the Indian monsoon, especially September rains. IMD provides daily rainfall updates, monthly El Niño updates, and district‑level data, and participates in meetings with the PMO, MHA and MoAFW. The Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology is collaborating with agriculture and dam‑management departments on impact assessments, while the Ministry has not issued district‑wise risk guidelines for 2026. The information was supplied by MoES Minister of State Dr Jitendra Singh in a Lok Sabha reply.