PARLIAMENT QUESTION: IMPACT OF EL NINO ON INDIAN MONSOON

The Ministry of Earth Sciences, via the India Meteorological Department (IMD), stated that El Nino events are classified as weak, moderate, strong or very strong based on sea‑surface‑temperature anomalies. For the 2026 southwest monsoon, IMD predicted El Nino development: conditions were weak in June 2026, rose to moderate in July 2026, and are expected to strengthen further in the October–December 2026 period, potentially reaching a very strong category. IMD continuously monitors ocean‑atmosphere conditions and issues seasonal, monthly, extended‑range forecasts and daily Impact‑Based Forecasts (IBFs) and risk‑based warnings for the next seven days to central and state governments and disaster‑management authorities. This information was provided by Minister of State (Independent Charge) for Earth Sciences Dr Jitendra Singh in a written reply in the Rajya Sabha.